SAF offtake market seen jumping to $17.62 billion by 2030

The sustainable aviation fuel offtake agreement market is expanding quickly as airlines, regulators and fuel producers lock in long-term supply deals to cut emissions and manage fuel-price risk. The Business Research Company pegs the market at $4.93 billion in 2025 and says it could reach $17.62 billion by 2030, with North America leading now and Asia-Pacific expected to grow fastest.

Why it matters: - SAF offtake agreements give airlines and fuel buyers a way to secure lower-carbon fuel supply while giving producers revenue certainty. - The contracts are becoming more important as aviation faces stronger emissions rules, higher carbon costs and pressure to move away from volatile crude oil prices. - Long-term supply deals can help carriers hedge fuel-price swings and support decarbonization commitments.

What happened: - The Business Research Company said the SAF offtake agreement market reached $4.93 billion in 2025 and is projected to rise to $6.35 billion in 2026. - The company projected the market will expand to $17.62 billion by 2030. - The forecast implies a 28.8% CAGR from 2025 to 2026 and a 29.1% CAGR from 2026 to 2030. - The report was published July 22, 2026, from London. - The company also made a free sample report and the full report available online.

The details: - Growth in 2025 and 2026 was tied to emissions awareness in aviation, early biofuel blending tests in commercial flights, crude oil price volatility, the ICAO CORSIA framework and voluntary airline net-zero pledges. - The forecast through 2030 is supported by mandatory SAF blending policies, stronger carbon pricing and emissions trading systems, advances in e-SAF and power-to-liquid technologies, longer offtake contracts and more investment in SAF production infrastructure. - The report says key market trends include airline decarbonization commitments, SAF credit trading, book-and-claim programs, indexed pricing, risk-sharing contract structures, tighter feedstock traceability and certification standards, and co-investment between airlines and producers. - A SAF offtake agreement is a long-term contract in which a producer agrees to supply a set quantity of fuel to a buyer such as an airline or fuel distributor under agreed terms. - The agreements are designed to give producers predictable cash flow and help buyers secure stable low-carbon fuel supply. - The Business Research Company said crude oil prices are a major driver because airlines can reduce exposure to oil-market swings by locking in alternative fuel supply. - U.S. Energy Information Administration data cited in the report showed crude oil first purchase prices rising from $58.44 per barrel in January 2026 to $62.44 in February 2026. - North America held the largest share of the SAF offtake agreement market in 2025. - Asia-Pacific is expected to post the fastest growth over the coming years. - The report covers Asia-Pacific, South East Asia, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East and Africa. - The 2026 report edition adds market attractiveness scoring, TAM analysis, company scoring matrix graphics and tables, Excel forecasting dashboards, market hotspots infographics, and updated graphics and tables.

Between the lines: - The forecast suggests SAF offtake agreements are moving from niche decarbonization tools to a core procurement strategy for airlines and fuel suppliers. - The emphasis on pricing formulas, traceability and risk-sharing points to a more mature market with tighter contract structures and higher investor scrutiny. - Regional leadership appears to be shifting from established policy markets in North America to faster growth in Asia-Pacific as aviation demand expands.

What's next: - Airlines and producers are likely to keep expanding long-term offtake deals as more mandatory blending rules take effect. - SAF infrastructure investment, production scale-up and contract innovation will be central to market growth through 2030. - The company positioned its market model and updated forecasting tools as resources for buyers, sellers and investors tracking the sector.