AGP Executive Report

Saudi Escalation: Houthi attacks on Saudi airports have killed three people and injured dozens, with fresh explosions reported in Riyadh and flights halted at its airport. The Houthis claimed responsibility; Saudi Arabia has struck Houthi targets. Regional Response: France and Saudi Arabia are weighing military options to protect the Yanbu oil terminal. Pakistan confirms troops are already in Saudi Arabia, while Syria is considering support but says it does not want to join the Yemen war. Oil and Iran: Brent crude eased after Donald Trump said the US would not strike Iran before November’s midterm elections, but attacks on Gulf shipping and Saudi infrastructure keep supply fears high. Asian countries are accelerating oil stockpiling. Israel: The country marked the third anniversary of the October 7 attacks with national ceremonies. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar defended closing Britain’s Jerusalem consulate amid a diplomatic row over UK sanctions; Colombia says it will open an embassy in Jerusalem next week. Gaza: Israeli reports say Hamas is taxing goods and aid to raise as much as $5 million daily while rebuilding its military capacity.

Oil and Shipping: Brent rose above $101 as tanker attacks in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz intensified; a vessel north of Qatar was hit, injuring crew. Exports have partly recovered, but disrupted routes and soaring insurance and freight costs keep supplies expensive. Saudi Arabia and Yemen: Houthi strikes on airports in Riyadh and Abha killed three and injured dozens, prompting Saudi strikes on Houthi targets. Syria is reportedly weighing a troop deployment to Yemen, but no decision has been announced. Israel and Gaza: Israel marked three years since the October 7 attacks as strikes in Gaza continued and political divisions deepened ahead of elections later this month. Iraq: War-related disruption to oil exports is adding pressure on the dinar, which the central bank has devalued.

October 7 Anniversary: Israel held memorials three years after Hamas’s attack, as protests demanded an inquiry into security failures and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faced scrutiny ahead of the October 27 election. Israeli strikes also killed at least two people in Gaza, according to local officials, despite a ceasefire. Saudi-Houthi Escalation: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have prompted Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan to activate their mutual-defence pact and prepare military support for the kingdom. Ankara says its role will be defensive and does not involve sending troops to fight in Yemen. Renewed supply fears pushed oil above $100 a barrel. Iraq’s Currency: Baghdad devalued the dinar to 1,520 per dollar from 1,320 as disruption to oil exports squeezes public finances. The change is raising import costs and household price concerns; economists warn Iraq may need IMF support if revenues remain weak.

Oil & Markets: Oil prices held near $100 as Middle East exports rose but Hormuz and Saudi supply risks stayed in focus; Brent hovered around $100.58 and WTI near $89, while Saudi said the East-West pipeline hit 5.8m bpd and G7 plans to release diesel/crude aimed to cool prices. Energy Security: Industry leaders warned the global oil “buffer” is shrinking fast, with Aramco saying less than 6bn barrels of commercial inventories remain practically usable. Iraq Economy: Iraq set a new official dinar rate—1,520 per dollar for bank sales—to narrow the gap with the parallel market. Israel-Hamas Anniversary: Israel marked three years since Oct. 7 with memorials and a renewed political fight ahead of elections, as Gaza remains devastated and a ceasefire failed to end violence. Regional Flashpoints: Iran-linked tanker attacks and Houthi strikes kept shipping and Strait of Hormuz fears alive, while Yemen’s conflict was flagged as a risk that could engulf the region. Diplomacy & Security: A former Israeli diplomat said Netanyahu lacks a strategic commitment to Kurdish issues, framing them through Israel-Türkiye rivalry.

Israel-Gaza Anniversary Politics: As the Oct. 7 third anniversary nears, Israel’s NSC warns of heightened threats to Israelis and Jews abroad, while security officials step up preparations. US-Israel Backlash: The U.S. release of the documentary “NAZA” is reigniting debate over Washington’s military support; a new poll shows Americans’ view of Israel at a record low. EU Flashpoint: Rima Hassan faces renewed backlash after an alleged Oct. 7 memorial flag incident in the European Parliament. Yemen-Saudi Escalation: Saudi says airports in Najran and Jizan were hit again as Houthis intensify attacks; Saudi also reports East-West pipeline flows restored to 5.8 million bpd. Regional Diplomacy: Syria’s President Al Shara meets Saudi Crown Prince in Riyadh amid the Yemen crisis. Oil Market: EIA lifts its 4Q forecast for Brent to about $105, citing tight diesel markets and ongoing Middle East volatility. Israel Domestic Fallout: A poll finds many Israelis blame both government and IDF for Oct. 7 failures, and Israel’s election debate turns toward postwar territory and sovereignty.

Gulf Oil Watch: Gulf exports (excluding Iran) bounced back in September to 81% of pre-war levels, with Saudi lifting output despite attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and renewed Iranian pressure on shipping; Iran’s exports reportedly fell to zero under the US blockade, while refined fuel recovery lagged and diesel/jet shortages kept prices sensitive. Hormuz & Prices: Oil slipped as Middle East exports rose and the G7 pledged a 100 million-barrel diesel/crude release, but analysts warned the risk premium remains as tanker attacks and costly routing continue. Yemen Escalation: Saudi Arabia launched a new offensive against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, aiming to roll back gains near Bab el-Mandeb; Houthi claims also targeted Saudi airports and an Aramco refinery. Regional Security Pact: Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia moved to activate their Mecca/Makkah defense agreement for rapid deployment amid Houthi threats. Israel-Gaza Politics: A Reuters report says Trump’s Gaza plan has stalled as Israel keeps striking and occupies much of the enclave, with the ceasefire not leading to disarmament or rebuilding. Israel Domestic Risk: A CIA assessment reported by Drop Site News warns Israel could face civil conflict and state collapse ahead of the Oct. 27 election. Markets: Asian stocks edged higher as oil eased, including Japan’s Nikkei, while investors stayed cautious on Middle East uncertainty.

Al-Aqsa Under Pressure: Israeli forces again protected large settler incursions into Al-Aqsa Mosque, with Jerusalem authorities saying 11,409 settlers entered during the holiday season and warning Palestinians fear a push to change the site’s status quo. Mecca Defence Pact: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye agreed to immediately implement collective defence commitments with “rapid deployment” of forces to Saudi Arabia after an emergency Riyadh meeting, as Yemen’s Houthis step up attacks. Oil Markets & Hormuz Risks: Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned global crude and fuel stockpiles may take up to two years to rebuild, as Middle East exports recover but tanker and shipping threats persist; G7 plans to release reserves are easing prices only partly. Flydubai Attack Fallout: Investigators and reports say the co-pilot planned an attack on Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, prompting security reviews and renewed scrutiny of vetting. Israel Domestic Politics: Israel’s Supreme Court ruled Arab parties can run in the Oct. 27 election, blocking a bid that would have disenfranchised Arab Israelis. Iran Talks Stalled: Iran’s president said negotiations with the US are “meaningless” after continued attacks, with the war’s wider diplomacy stuck.

FlyDubai Security Fallout: UAE shared FlyDubai crew details with Israel before a foiled cockpit attack, but Israel says it flagged no red alerts—while Oman had reportedly grounded the co-pilot for Islamist radicalization, raising fresh questions about vetting failures. Oil Markets: OPEC+ kept November output steady as Brent stayed above $100 amid Iran-linked shipping risks; Kpler data says Middle East crude exports (excluding Iran) are back above pre-war levels as more flows bypass Hormuz via pipelines and alternative routes. G7 Fuel Relief: G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from reserves to ease diesel tightness in Europe and the US. Regional Diplomacy: Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will hold Mecca Joint Defence talks in Riyadh amid Yemen and navigation-security concerns. Israel Commemoration & Politics: Israel marks Oct. 7 memorial day; meanwhile, UK Green Party adopted “Zionism is racism,” prompting Israel to bar its leader Zack Polanski. Iran Update: Iran’s oil minister resigned and an acting minister was named as sanctions pressure continues.

OPEC+ Oil Watch: OPEC+ kept November output targets unchanged for a second straight month, citing ongoing disruptions to Middle East exports and pressure on energy infrastructure and shipping routes. Hormuz Shipping Shift: Iraq moved about 2 million barrels of crude past the Strait of Hormuz on a very large carrier as the Iran-linked war continues to choke exports and raise insurance and security risks. G7 Energy Relief: G7 leaders agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from strategic reserves to cool markets as prices hover near $100 amid Middle East tensions. Iran-Iraq Flights: Iranian airlines resumed flights to Iraq’s Najaf after the US granted Baghdad an exemption for sanctioned carriers, easing travel for Shia pilgrims. Yemen Escalation: Yemen’s Saudi-backed government launched a major offensive to retake Houthi-held areas, while Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Flydubai Fallout: Investigations and political debate continued after the attempted hijacking, with reports saying Israeli agencies received crew lists and that security vetting responsibilities were unclear. Iraq After US: The US completed its withdrawal from Iraq, leaving a security landscape shaped by Shia parties, Iran influence, and armed militias.

Energy & Shipping: Iraq shipped 2 million barrels of crude beyond the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in decades as the Iran war chokes exports, while Iraq and Türkiye advanced a Ceyhan export deal to boost capacity. Oil Markets: OPEC+ is set to keep November output targets steady despite disruption, and the IEA says 325 million barrels have been released from emergency reserves as G7 moves to curb fuel-price pressure. Gulf Security: Iran’s IRGC targeted at least seven “violating” tankers in Hormuz over five days, and reports of an oil tanker explosion added to shipping fears. Yemen Escalation: Saudi Arabia is preparing a large-scale Yemen offensive to roll back Houthi gains near Bab el-Mandeb, as Houthis claim attacks on Saudi energy sites including an Aramco facility in Riyadh. Aviation Terror Case: UAE says the flydubai co-pilot attack was terrorism; investigators focus on radicalization links and security gaps after multiple Omani pilots reportedly flew the route despite restrictions. Politics & Courts: Italy faces protests over a proposed antisemitism law that critics say could chill anti-Israel activism, while UK prosecutors charged two Iranians over a plot targeting Manchester’s Jewish community. Iraq-US Fallout: Iran congratulated Iraq on the US-led coalition withdrawal, calling it essential for sovereignty and demanding accountability. Business & Investment: Syria is courting US investors as it seeks a pro-business reset after sanctions easing.

Flydubai Terror Probe: UAE and Israel-linked reporting says the Omani co-pilot, Hamam al-Hammami, tried to sabotage an Israel-bound flight after stabbing the captain; Netanyahu hailed the Indian captain Smit Machchhar as a “true hero,” while investigators point to alleged Islamist radicalisation and extremist posts. Gaza Ceasefire Strains: Israeli strikes killed at least five in Gaza City, including four women and a Christian mother-daughter pair, as Hamas condemned the attack and Israel said militants violated the ceasefire. Gaza Rocket War: Israel said it killed two Palestinian Islamic Jihad commanders tied to rocket and anti-tank cells in separate Gaza City strikes. Iraq Sovereignty & Arms: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi declared all weapons subject to the commander-in-chief after the US-led coalition withdrawal, as Baghdad pushes militia disarmament. Oil & Energy Pressure: After G7 plans to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from reserves, IEA chief Fatih Birol said prices are starting to fall; markets also reacted to EU diesel releases. Yemen Escalation: Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of dozens of strikes on Sanaa and reported blasts near oil infrastructure, while Saudi counter-strikes followed. UK Terror Case: Two Iranian nationals appeared in London court charged over an alleged plot targeting Manchester’s Jewish community. Israel-UK Tensions: Netanyahu warned Israel-UK relations could deteriorate further, criticizing Britain’s stance on West Bank policy and alleged “appeasement.” Diplomacy & Travel: Somalia’s president said Israel will not be allowed any presence “under any circumstances,” while Turkmenistan launched an e-visa system with access still unclear.

Aviation Security Shock: Israel and the UAE are probing the Flydubai cockpit attack after an Omani co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain and tried to crash a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight; the UAE called it a “dangerous terrorist act,” Israel says the suspect showed Islamist radicalisation, and repatriation flights resumed as questions grow over how he was assigned despite rules barring pilots from countries without ties to Israel. Energy & Shipping Threats: UK maritime monitors reported two separate hits on oil tankers in/near the Strait of Hormuz—one off Oman—raising fears for a key chokepoint amid the US-Iran conflict. Oil Prices Relief Plan: G7 nations agreed to release about 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from reserves to curb soaring fuel costs, with Trump saying he won’t impose an export ban. Iraq Tech Push: Iraq signed a Huawei MoU to build enterprise data centers nationwide, aiming to expand sovereign cloud services. Elections & Governance: Israel’s Supreme Court reinstated Arab parties for the Knesset vote as Netanyahu campaigns amid war pressure. Regional Diplomacy: Türkiye and Georgia signed an education cooperation deal on language teaching and diploma recognition.

Flydubai Security Shock: Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu says the co-pilot behind the Israel-bound Flydubai incident underwent Islamist radicalisation and intended to crash the plane, adding investigators are probing whether he was “sent” by someone. The attack has also left Israelis stranded in the UAE as flights are disrupted and security alerts rise for Jewish communities abroad. G7 Energy Push: The G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves over four months, aiming to cool prices and avert a threatened U.S. diesel export ban. OPEC+ Oil Planning: OPEC+ delayed its 2027 production-capacity review to mid-November after Middle East war disruptions complicated expansion estimates. Iraq-Iran Air Links: Iraq approved up to 40 daily Iranian flights to Najaf (excluding Mahan Air), citing travel needs for pilgrims, patients and education. Israel Election Court Ruling: Israel’s Supreme Court overturned a ban on Arab parties, reinstating major Arab lists for the Oct. 27 Knesset vote. Turkey-Canada Diplomacy: Canadian PM Mark Carney plans a visit to Turkey to meet President Erdoğan, with talks including trade, energy and defense. Islamophobia Rules in Universities: Australia issued guidance for defining Islamophobia for universities ahead of 2027 regulatory requirements.

US-Iran Tensions & Energy: Oil steadied after a volatile week as markets weighed possible renewed US-Iran escalation, with reports of a third US aircraft carrier and thousands more troops heading to the Middle East, while China curbed fuel exports and supply signals stayed mixed. Military Buildup: The US also sent two extra Patriot batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to protect oil and gas sites, as Washington keeps pressure on Iran. Flydubai Attack Fallout: Israel’s PM said the Flydubai co-pilot who stabbed the captain and tried to crash an Israel-bound flight underwent “Islamist radical indoctrination,” and Trump suggested Iran could be linked, as investigations continue. Regional Flashpoints: Türkiye condemned Houthi attacks on civilian infrastructure serving the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina, while Pakistan condemned the Medina power-station strike and backed Saudi Arabia. Iraq After US Exit: Iraq marked “Sovereignty Day” after the last US troops left, as Iran urged Iraq to lift flight curbs tied to US sanctions and Baghdad pushed plans to bring militia weapons under state control by June 2027. Economy & Costs: Canada fast-tracked a west-coast oil pipeline to diversify away from the US, and Singapore approved a record public transit fare rise linked to Middle East-driven energy costs.

Aviation Security Shock: A flydubai flight bound for Tel Aviv was saved after the captain was stabbed and passengers stormed the cockpit; it landed safely in Saudi Arabia as Israel’s PM Netanyahu said the co-pilot underwent “Islamist radical indoctrination,” while investigators keep probing vetting and motive. US-Iran Power Shift: Iran’s IRGC hailed the complete US withdrawal from Iraq as a “historic victory,” as Iraq marks “Sovereignty Days” and factions warn they’re not bound by any timetable. Regional Military Posture: The US is sending another carrier strike group and Marines to the Middle East amid Iran tensions, with oil markets reacting to the risk. Oil & Trade: Gulf crude exports are near pre-war levels, but refined fuel flows lag, keeping prices elevated; China’s fuel-export moves also stirred volatility. Israel Politics & Rights: Israel’s Supreme Court urged an Arab party leader to withdraw from the Knesset race, while Israel and Jordan trade sharp accusations over Palestinian rights. Turkey Crackdown: Turkish police arrested three mayors on corruption charges, and courts shut down an independent news site over “LGBT propaganda,” while academic freedom groups warn of tighter controls. Diaspora & Education: Jewish teachers in Ontario filed complaints over antisemitism and alleged discrimination, and Pennsylvania lawmakers held a hearing on Jew-hatred in schools. Hajj Update: Saudi Arabia approved 10,000 additional 2027 Hajj slots for Nigeria.

US-Iraq Exit: The Pentagon says the US has completed withdrawal of all troops from Iraq, ending the 12-year anti-ISIS mission as Trump calls it a “very expensive excursion into Hell,” while Iraqis celebrate but fear a security vacuum and renewed influence for Iran-backed groups and ISIS. Gaza Aid Blocked: The UN warns Israeli restrictions on access to 65% of Gaza’s land are the main obstacle to extending aid and shelter, with hundreds of displacement camps facing flooding risk as winter approaches. West Bank Settlements: US House Democrats plan sanctions targeting people and entities involved in building or expanding Israeli settlements and outposts, alongside import limits on settlement goods. Al-Aqsa Tensions: Hundreds of Arab and Islamic figures call for events supporting Al-Aqsa amid reported Israeli moves around the site, with calls for a “day of popular interaction” next Friday. Flydubai Incident: A cockpit stabbing and attempted crash on an Israel-bound Flydubai flight led to diversion to Saudi Arabia; Israel says it was not a hijacking, and security checks are set to ramp up. Hormuz and Oil: Oil prices swing as Gulf exports rebound toward pre-war levels, while tankers report projectile strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and India changes tactics by hiring tankers to source crude inside the Persian Gulf. Deportation Fight: A US immigration judge ruled Palestinian American Salah Sarsour can be deported under a Cold War-era law, with his team saying they will appeal.