AGP Executive Report

U.S.-Iran Escalation: Trump warned the U.S. would hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT” and hinted at “total control” of oil assets like Kharg Island as the U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day, pushing the region toward full-scale war. Oil Shock Turns to Relief: Oil prices plunged after Trump said a framework peace deal was close and called off renewed strikes, reviving hopes the Strait of Hormuz could reopen; Brent slipped below $90 and markets rallied. Iran’s Oil Lifeline Under Pressure: Reports say Iranian crude flows to China have fallen sharply as demand weakens and a U.S. blockade tightens the noose. Iraq’s Security and Economy: Iraq’s PM marked the Camp Speicher massacre anniversary while also facing mounting pressure to rein in paramilitaries and stabilize an economy hit hard by Hormuz disruptions. Palestinian Politics: Israel released Hamas co-founder Hassan Yousef from administrative detention after more than two years, with footage showing him injured and taken to hospital care. Elections and Influence: France’s disinformation watchdog accused Israeli firm BlackCore of meddling in New York and Scotland elections, expanding beyond prior allegations in France.

US-Iran Escalation: Trump says the US will hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT,” threatening to seize Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure as tit-for-tat strikes push the region toward full war; Iran says the April ceasefire is effectively meaningless. Ceasefire Talks Under Strain: Trump later claims a deal is approved by many regional powers and cancels strikes, but Iran says no final decision is made and Israel says it isn’t a party to the understanding. Oil Shock & Global Fallout: Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps markets jumpy; oil prices wobble, the ECB raises rates citing the energy shock, and the World Bank warns Middle East conflict is dragging growth. West Bank Expansion: Israel’s government is set to rapidly expand settlements ahead of fall elections, routing hundreds of millions of dollars for “temporary” housing sites. Lebanon Diplomacy: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun says talks with Israel will continue despite pressure, while demanding Israeli withdrawal and an end to hostilities. Regional Energy Moves: Iraq accelerates the Basra-Haditha pipeline to boost refining and create export routes beyond Hormuz. Security in Iraq: IS local leader killed in airstrikes in eastern Diyala. Turkey-Bulgaria: Fidan says they reaffirm plans for a new border crossing and urges US-Iran de-escalation.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded strikes for a second day, pushing the region toward a wider war as talks stall; Iran says the ceasefire is effectively meaningless and the Strait of Hormuz is shut, while an AFP report says a Bahrain oil-area facility was attacked. Shipping and Oil Shock: A US strike on a tanker off Oman killed three Indian sailors, as Washington accuses vessels of violating its blockade; markets react to constrained flows and falling inventories, with oil volatility rising and officials warning of supply strain. Diplomacy Under Strain: Saudi Arabia called for renewed negotiations under Pakistan and Qatar mediation, while Pakistan and Iraq urged restraint and dialogue. Israel-West Bank Expansion: Israel is set to approve funding for 61 new settlements and infrastructure in the occupied West Bank, drawing renewed international criticism. Regional Spillover: Russia says it will “restructure” its military footprint in Syria as the US seeks more oversight, while Turkey’s main opposition leadership crisis deepens after a court ruling. Energy Fallout Beyond the Region: Analysts warn the conflict is reshaping demand too—fuel costs, fertilizer pressures, and even biofuel plans are being pulled into the crisis.

US-Iran Escalation: Trump says the US will hit Iran “very hard” if no peace deal is secured, while also claiming a secret mission helped move over 100 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz and that more than 200 ships transited. Hormuz Oil Shock: Markets are still jittery, with oil holding in the $90s and “ghost” tanker traffic easing fears of a full supply collapse. Diplomacy Shift: Vice President JD Vance signals Washington will pursue an Iran nuclear deal with or without Israel’s approval, marking a major break from past alignment. Regional Spillover: Israel reports missile fragments hitting Ramat David Air Base; US strikes also disabled an Iranian-linked tanker in the Gulf of Oman as the ceasefire strains. West Bank Rights: Amnesty and a UN inquiry accuse Israel of state-led “ethnic cleansing” and accelerating annexation via settler violence. US Politics & Israel Ties: A House NDAA provision faces backlash over deeper US-Israel defense integration, while NYC divestment claims spark a $37B cost warning. Saudi Economy: Riyadh Air launches its second national carrier after delays, despite the war-driven regional uncertainty.

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Rift: Vice President JD Vance says Washington will pursue an Iran nuclear agreement “with or without” Israel’s approval, with Trump hinting a final deal in 2–3 days—while the region stays on edge after fresh strikes and counterstrikes. Middle East Escalation: Iran claims it hit U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain after a U.S. strike on southern Iran; Jordan says it downed five missiles. Israel-Lebanon Front: Israel carried out strikes near Tyre after evacuation warnings, while Lebanon’s church leaders urged quick international action. West Bank Crackdown: Amnesty accuses Israel of a state-led “ethnic cleansing” campaign tied to annexation, citing mass displacement and demolitions. Humanitarian/Science: Israel reports a first-of-its-kind gene therapy injected into a child’s brain to treat a rare epilepsy. Oil & Shipping: Hormuz disruption fears keep markets jumpy, but a tanker finally reaches Ulsan after leaving the Strait; Suez Canal traffic also rises as routes shift. Regional Economy: Saudi Arabia forecasts a 2027 rebound in oil output as export routes normalize. Politics Beyond the Region: Maine Democrats pick Graham Platner for Senate amid controversy, underscoring how Middle East politics is spilling into U.S. elections.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Push: Vice President JD Vance says Washington will pursue an Iran nuclear agreement “with or without” Israel’s approval, with Trump claiming a final deal could come in “two or three days,” even as the region’s fighting has threatened diplomacy. Israel-Iran Escalation & Ceasefire Watch: Iran launched its first direct strike on Israeli targets, analysts say, after Israeli action in Lebanon; later, Iran and Israel paused attacks after Trump’s appeal, but warned hostilities could resume if strikes on Hezbollah continue. Lebanon Front: Israel struck Tyre and ordered evacuations of the Christian quarter, while Lebanese “Islamic Resistance” groups reported drone and rocket attacks on Israeli positions in southern Lebanon. Hormuz & Oil Shock: Oil and gas markets swung on ceasefire headlines; Brent slid below $90 at times, while the EIA warned U.S. inventories are heading toward multi-decade lows and global shipping through Hormuz is only gradually recovering. Markets & Politics: A lobbying fight over a U.S. defense provision for Israel-linked military tech is heating up in Congress, while Democrats also face renewed debate over AI limits in lethal operations. Turkey Rights & Kurdish Politics: Turkey’s constitutional court reported over 739,000 rights complaints since 2012, as Kurdish groups and Nobel laureates renewed calls for Abdullah Öcalan’s “right to hope” and physical freedom.

Israel-Lebanon Front: Israeli strikes hit Tyre after evacuation orders, with reports of deaths and injuries as displacement grows. Iran-Israel Diplomacy: Trump says a Middle East peace deal is in the “final throes,” with Iran and Israel pausing attacks after a flare-up, though both warn they’ll resume if provoked. Italy-Israel Row: Italy’s foreign minister condemned Ben-Gvir’s remarks amid a Rome probe into alleged mistreatment of detained flotilla activists. UN Rights Watch: A UN report says settler violence in the West Bank is rising sharply, while civilians face abuses from multiple sides. Oil & Markets: Oil slid on hopes of de-escalation, lifting risk sentiment in parts of Asia and Europe; gold edged up as crude eased. Shipping & Energy Security: The US disabled an oil tanker headed for Iran in the Gulf of Oman; Iraq pushes alternative export routes as Hormuz disruption bites. Regional Shipping Threats: Yemen’s Houthis announce a total ban on Israeli-linked Red Sea shipping, raising escalation fears.

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Test: After Iran’s first ballistic missile barrage since April’s truce, Israel retaliated with strikes including Iran’s Mahshahr petrochemical complex, but both sides later said attacks were paused as Trump pressed for an “immediate ceasefire,” while warning that fighting could resume if Lebanon is hit. Lebanon Front: Hezbollah-linked clashes in Beirut and Israel’s continued pressure on Hezbollah kept the ceasefire fragile, with Iran explicitly tying any halt to stopping aggression in southern Lebanon. Oil & Markets: Middle East risk pushed crude sharply higher (Brent near $98 at points), then eased when Iran said operations ended; investors also watched Hormuz and shipping disruptions. Gulf Security: The U.S. disabled an empty tanker headed for an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman, continuing its naval blockade. Human Rights & Media: Palestinian journalists’ groups reported 55 violations against journalists in May, including arrests, detentions, and attacks during coverage. Turkey Legal Storm: Turkey opened an investigation into 95-year-old Rahmi Koc over a derogatory joke, sparking debate over rule-of-law and investor confidence.

Israel-Iran Escalation: Israel and Iran traded fresh strikes for the first time since the April ceasefire, with Iran firing missiles and Israel hitting targets including a petrochemical complex in Mahshahr; Yemen’s Houthis also warned they would target Israel-affiliated shipping in the Red Sea, while airspace restrictions and flight suspensions spread across the region. Trump Diplomacy Pressure: President Trump urged both sides to “immediately stop shooting,” but the cycle of retaliation continued, raising fears the fragile truce is collapsing. Energy Shock & Markets: Oil jumped more than 3% as traders priced in possible Strait of Hormuz disruption; airline profitability is expected to be cut roughly in half in 2026, and Asian stocks slid on the renewed Middle East risk. EU Sanctions Move: The EU said it will apply “freedom of navigation” sanctions on Iran for the first time, alongside maritime security steps. Regional Ripples: Iran also said it targeted U.S. military assets in Bahrain and Kuwait, while Jordan and Iraq emphasized security cooperation amid cross-border threats. Local Tensions in Syria: Protests in Syria’s Jazira region blocked fuel routes over worsening living conditions and frustration with integration plans.

Iran-Israel Escalation: Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time since the April ceasefire, after Israel struck Beirut’s southern suburbs; Israel says it intercepted all missiles so far, while Iran’s IRGC framed the attack as a “warning” and threatened a “full week” of continuous strikes if Lebanon aggression continues. Ceasefire Pressure: Trump urged restraint and told Iran to return to talks, while reports say US-Iran negotiations for an interim framework are still struggling, with Israel also weighing how and when to respond. Lebanon Front: Israel hit Hezbollah-linked areas in Beirut’s Dahiyeh despite the truce, and Lebanon reported deaths and injuries, as airspace restrictions spread across the region. Oil Market Shock: OPEC+ approved another output increase (188,000 bpd for July) even as Strait of Hormuz disruption and renewed Middle East fighting keep supply risks elevated; oil prices jumped on the latest strikes. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan’s army chief met Iran’s foreign minister to discuss developments, as the US weighs further economic pressure on Tehran and Gulf allies. Iraq-US Energy: US crude imports from Iraq resumed at about 43,000 bpd, according to EIA data.

Israel-Palestinian Violence: Multiple shooting attacks near the West Bank left at least one dead and five wounded; police said they killed a suspect near Kokhav Yair as searches continued. US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. shot down two Iranian drones threatening shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran fired missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait; the conflict is now at its 100th day with talks stalled. Regional Security Recalibration: Gulf and Arab states say confidence in U.S. guarantees is eroding, pushing calls for more self-reliance and diversified partnerships as attacks disrupt shipping and markets. Oil Market Pressure: OPEC+ is set to approve a fourth output quota increase amid Hormuz closure tensions; oil prices fell on hopes for de-escalation, but analysts warn of lingering supply risks. Diplomacy & Sanctions: France and allies are coordinating new sanctions on Israeli settlers as EU consensus falters. Iraq’s Economic Strain: Iraq’s FM warns a “financial catastrophe” if the Iran war drags on, citing revenue collapse and cash printing. Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia: Foreign ministers meet in Istanbul to deepen cooperation on transit, energy security, and regional stability. Sports & Law: José Mourinho files an ECHR complaint over Turkish football federation sanctions.

Israel-Gaza: Israeli strikes killed seven in Gaza, including a drone attack on a displaced people’s camp in Jawazat and a fatal strike on a tent in Khan Yunis, as truce violations remain disputed. Israel-Lebanon: After a fragile ceasefire, Hezbollah and Israeli forces traded attacks; Lebanon’s army said a strike killed three soldiers, while Hezbollah reported drone and missile activity and Israel said it targeted Hezbollah. US-Iran: The ceasefire is under strain after US strikes on Iranian radar sites; Iran says it hit US interests in Kuwait and Bahrain, while talks continue and Israel complains about mediation. Strait of Hormuz & oil: Iraq’s Oil Ministry denied US claims that tankers were halted over payments to Iran; markets also tracked de-escalation hopes as oil prices eased. Diplomacy & politics: Iran’s MP Bafel Talabani urged Iraq to stay balanced in US-Iran talks. Regional sentiment: A new survey found negative views of Israel rising across many countries, with Bangladesh and Turkey among the most negative. West Bank: An Israeli shooting killed a seven-month-old infant in Hebron, amid rising violence. Turkey: A Turkish billionaire faces investigation after a viral joke targeting Kurdish women, sparking backlash. Israel-US ties: The Pentagon raised Israel spying concerns to “critical,” and a report said Israel sought US positions in Iran negotiations. Diaspora & antisemitism: Toronto police investigated synagogue vandalism ahead of Walk with Israel. Cultural ties: Israel plans a Chhatrapati Shivaji statue project to deepen India-Israel ties.

Iraq Power-Shuffle: Two Iran-backed Shi’ite militias, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Imam Ali, say they’re handing weapons to the Iraqi state—welcomed by US officials as a step toward “renewed Iraqi self-governance,” though critics warn it may mask deeper influence games. Gulf Flashpoints: The US says it intercepted Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Kuwait and Bahrain as talks stall, while Iran frames strikes as retaliation—raising fresh doubts about a fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz stability. Lebanon Ceasefire Strains: Israel and Hezbollah trade accusations as fighting continues despite ceasefire efforts; Hezbollah rejects truce terms and Lebanon’s leaders lash out at Iran for using the country in US negotiations. Oil & Shipping Shock: Oil prices slide on easing conflict fears, but logistics remain strained—container freight rates jump amid Middle East disruptions and Hormuz-related uncertainty. Turkey-Bangladesh Diplomacy: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan meets Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman and discusses cooperation and Rohingya issues, signaling Ankara’s push for deeper regional ties. Qatar-France Mediation: Qatar’s PM discusses with France de-escalation efforts involving US-Iran mediation, alongside urgent Gaza and Lebanon developments.

Ceasefire Pressure, Still No Calm: Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks face major roadblocks as Hezbollah rejects US-brokered terms and fighting continues across southern Lebanon, while Iran keeps tying any wider truce to Israel’s withdrawal. Iran-US Escalation Claims: Iran condemned US-Israeli “nuclear terrorism” and said US warships withdrew from the Sea of Oman after warning shots, as officials demand “zero-tolerance” for attacks on nuclear sites. Oil and Markets: Oil prices slid on hopes for de-escalation and renewed US-Iran diplomacy, with Brent and WTI easing as traders watch whether Hormuz shipping risk will calm. Gaza Human Toll: A seven-month-old Palestinian baby died after Israeli forces opened fire near Hebron, according to Palestinian health authorities, as Israel said the incident is under investigation. Gaza Doctor in Solitary: Rights groups warned after Gaza hospital director Dr. Hussam Abu Safiya was reportedly moved to solitary confinement without explanation. Academic Boycott Push: Thousands of Belgian academics urged universities to cut ties with Israeli institutions, escalating Europe-wide boycott pressure. Ireland Sanctions Move: Ireland barred far-right Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich from entering the country, calling their actions genocidal. Terror Plot Trial Spotlight: An Iraqi man accused in US and European cases is linked by prosecutors to Iran-backed militia activity targeting Jewish communities.

Israel–Hezbollah Front: Hezbollah rejected a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, demanding full Israeli withdrawal as strikes continued and UNIFIL reported a peacekeeper death, while Israel warned residents in southern Lebanon to evacuate ahead of attacks. US–Iran Diplomacy: Türkiye’s FM Hakan Fidan said Ankara welcomes progress in US-Iran talks via Pakistan mediation, but urged both sides to stop violating ceasefire terms and stressed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Shock: Oil prices swung with de-escalation hopes and Hormuz risk; Reuters and market reports pointed to continued volatility, while WFP warned the Middle East crisis is pushing millions toward hunger as fuel and transport costs rise and aid funding falls. War Tech & Information: A Reuters investigation said Starlink/Starshield helped power US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and another report highlighted Israel’s digital propaganda “hasbara” as a manufactured-truth strategy. Global Politics: A Pew survey found Israel’s global image has deteriorated sharply, with 67% holding unfavorable views across 36 countries. Business & Trade: Italy is sending 34 jewelry firms to Sharjah as UAE imports hit €1.3bn, underscoring Gulf demand despite the conflict-driven energy squeeze.

Israel–Lebanon Ceasefire Frays: UN chief Guterres welcomed a US-brokered Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, but Hezbollah rejected the terms almost immediately, saying it demands a full Israeli withdrawal; clashes and strikes continued on the ground. Gaza Strikes: Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City killed at least nine Palestinians, with reports of civilians hit in apartment targets, as Israel also signals further control expansion. Iran Pressure: Iran’s IRGC linked any stability to Israel withdrawing from Lebanon, while Israel and Hezbollah traded fire despite the truce framework. Energy Shock & Markets: Oil slid as ceasefire hopes grew, but Hormuz disruption fears kept traders nervous; the IEA projected $3.4tn global energy investment in 2026 as Middle East instability reshapes spending. Türkiye–Syria Chemical Weapons: Türkiye praised Syria’s cooperation with OPCW to identify remaining chemical weapons remnants. Oil Deals Beyond the Region: India met Venezuela’s interim president to expand crude cooperation, while Russia said refinery repairs should lift oil output.