AGP Executive Report

Mecca Joint Defence Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement,” treating an attack on one as an attack on all, as regional tensions tied to the US-Iran war and Houthi strikes intensify. Iran Pushback: Iranian officials dismissed the pact as a “paper agreement” that won’t secure Saudi Arabia, while Iran’s foreign minister urged Muslim countries to “rely only on ourselves” and strengthen unity. Gaza Humanitarian Strain: UN warns Israeli fuel denials are risking hospital and bakery shutdowns in Gaza, with shelter aid also restricted. Iran Oil Pressure: Kharg Island oil exports reportedly halted for at least a week as the US tightens its blockade, underscoring how Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep energy markets jittery. Yemen Escalation: Houthi attacks in oil-rich Marib killed at least 10, hitting troops and displacement camps. Kurdish Talks in Turkey: Turkey’s new framework law centers on PKK disarmament and dissolution, with critics saying it offers no real Kurdish political rights. Strait of Hormuz Hope: US says progress between Iran and Oman could soon reopen Hormuz and lift the blockade if an arrangement is reached.

Mecca Joint Defense Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement,” saying an attack on any one will be treated as an attack on all, with limited public details on how far military commitments go. Iran Tensions & Energy Pressure: The pact lands as Iran-backed attacks and shipping disruptions keep pressure on Gulf energy routes, while reports say Iran’s Kharg Island oil exports have stalled for at least a week amid renewed US blockade. Turkey Counterterror Sweep: Türkiye detained 104 people suspected of Islamic State links in coordinated nationwide operations. Syria Returns & Politics: Syria began preparations to return hundreds of displaced families from Al-Hasakah to Ras Al-Ain, as the new parliament includes women MPs ranging from an actress to a Christian engineer and a commander’s widow. Israel-Hamas Negotiations: Shin Bet chief David Zini warned Hamas is using Gaza demilitarization talks to limit Israel’s freedom of action, aiming to “trap” it.

Yemen-Saudi Escalation: Houthis carried out attacks on Saudi Arabia, injuring 11 civilians in Najran, as Riyadh warned of coordinated strikes involving Houthis, Iraqi Shiite militias and Iran’s IRGC. Hormuz Shock to Energy Markets: Oil jumped again on reports Iran hit “hostile targets” in the Strait of Hormuz and is weighing a bill to block US and Israeli ships, while Iran-Oman talks still leave safe passage uncertain—keeping fuel prices and shipping costs jittery. Regional Security Pacts: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan are set to sign a joint defence agreement in Jeddah, with talks expected to focus on maritime security and defence cooperation amid US-Iran tensions. Syria Security Blow: A bomb hidden in a minibus killed 2 and wounded 13 in the Damascus suburb of Jaramana, underscoring fragile stability. Islamic Finance Push: Standard Chartered says Saudi Arabia is positioned to become a global hub for Islamic capital flows as Vision 2030 expands markets and digital infrastructure. Gaza Diplomacy: Pakistan and seven other Muslim countries condemned Israeli violations in Gaza, especially attacks on healthcare and civilian infrastructure. Oman Environmental Threat: A Russian “shadow fleet” tanker ran aground off Oman, with Greenpeace warning of a growing oil spill threatening coral reefs and marine life.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions and Oil: Oil jumped about $3 after Iran reviewed a bill to bar US and Israeli vessels from Hormuz and fine violators, while Iran-Oman talks on a possible shipping corridor kept markets jittery and renewed supply fears. Gaza Diplomacy: Eight Arab and Muslim states condemned Israel’s attacks on Gaza hospitals and healthcare, calling them grave breaches of international law and warning they could derail the next phase of the US-backed ceasefire roadmap. Israel-Lebanon Talks: US-sponsored Lebanon-Israel negotiations in Rome continued without final answers on territorial issues, with a new security draft and detainee exchange lists still in play. West Bank Violence: Israeli prosecutors charged a Jewish settler over the 2025 killing of Palestinian activist Owdeh Hathaleen, the first such indictment in years amid rising settler violence. Regional Politics: Turkey’s PKK amnesty draft could reduce Kurdish tensions and shift Ankara’s focus, while Israel’s Netanyahu hinted at possible unilateral action against Iran as he cites renewed nuclear-threat claims. Saudi-Pakistan Ties: PM Shehbaz Sharif arrived in Jeddah for talks with Saudi leadership amid broader Gulf security concerns.

US-Iran energy talks: Oil prices hovered around $80 as Iran and Oman reportedly neared a deal on a Strait of Hormuz shipping route, with markets watching whether Tehran would gain any say over Gulf transit. Red Sea escalation: Yemen’s Houthis claimed ballistic missile strikes on two Saudi oil tankers, renewing fears for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping. Democratic Party fault line (US): Michigan Democrats chose progressive Abdul El-Sayed over Haley Stevens, setting up a November fight against Republican Mike Rogers and intensifying the party’s Israel-and-anti-establishment debate. Trump attacks El-Sayed: Trump renewed accusations that El-Sayed “hates Jews and Israel,” while El-Sayed pushed back and focused on affordability and Medicare for All. Türkiye “terror-free” law: Erdoğan backed a new parliamentary bill to strengthen national solidarity and advance the “Terror-Free Türkiye” framework. Jerusalem documentation push: Türkiye and Arab-Muslim partners agreed on a mechanism to document alleged Israeli violations at occupied East Jerusalem’s holy sites. Energy supply reshuffle (China): Sinopec reportedly increased purchases of Far East Russian oil to offset Middle East supply disruptions tied to the Iran war. Lebanon ceasefire violations: Israel was accused of setting fires and striking areas in southern Lebanon, with fires spreading toward homes.

Jerusalem Diplomacy: Arab and Muslim foreign ministers met in Amman and condemned Israel’s “escalation” at Al-Aqsa, warning it aims to change Jerusalem’s identity and status quo, while calling for coordinated diplomatic action and reaffirming Jordan’s custodianship. US Politics Meets the Middle East: In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic Senate primary over Haley Stevens in a race dominated by Israel policy, with Trump immediately questioning election integrity and attacking El-Sayed as a “Communist” who “hates Jews.” Iraq Oil Pressure: Iraq’s public employees reportedly face delayed July salaries as Strait of Hormuz disruptions cut oil export revenue, raising fears of further payment delays. Red Sea Risk: An Indian-flagged tanker sank after a strike off Yemen, with authorities blaming the Houthis’ renewed threats to shipping tied to Saudi Arabia. Turkey-Kurd Peace: Turkey’s pro-Kurdish DEM Party hailed the parliamentary legal framework for a PKK peace process as a “historic step,” even as skepticism remains.

Michigan Senate Primary: Progressive Abdul El-Sayed held a narrow lead over establishment-backed Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic U.S. Senate race, a high-stakes test over the party’s direction and Israel policy, with results still too close to call as vote counting continued. Gaza/Israel: Netanyahu said Israel will not withdraw from current Gaza lines until Hamas fully disarms, casting doubt on a proposed disarmament-and-withdrawal framework. Jerusalem Holy Sites: Jordan convened an emergency Arab-Islamic meeting over an “imminent” threat to Al-Aqsa’s status, warning changes could spark wider religious conflict. Oil/Hormuz: Oil prices slid again as hopes grew for a short-term U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping, while Aramco warned the Iran war has erased 2.6bn barrels from global supply. Turkey: A “terror-free Türkiye” framework bill is set for parliament after consultations, tied to claims PKK has disarmed and dissolved. Saudi Economy: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector kept expanding in July, supported by stronger domestic demand despite export pressure.

Hormuz Deal Hopes vs. Fragile Reality: Oil prices swung as U.S. officials said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come by Wednesday, while Iran denied talks and a projectile hit a cargo ship in the strait—keeping markets jittery. Aramco Profit Surge, Supply Shock Warning: Saudi Aramco reported a 44% jump in quarterly net profit to $32.69bn, but warned the world has lost over 2.6bn barrels since the Iran war began and that even reopening would take up to 18 months to rebuild inventories. Iraq’s Hormuz Exports Under Pressure: Iraq exported over 30 million barrels through Hormuz in a month, far below pre-war levels, as the closure squeezes state revenue and routes. Iraq Budget Strain: Iraq struggled to pay July salaries as oil income fell, with officials warning they may not meet payroll if disruptions continue. Gaza Escalation: Israel intensified strikes on Gaza weapons traders and production sites, while mass funerals marked the recovery of 112 victims from a 2023 air strike. Regional Diplomacy on Jerusalem: Türkiye’s Fidan will attend a Jerusalem ministerial meeting in Jordan with Arab and regional states to address holy-site status and Gaza/West Bank developments. Iraq’s Shiite Pilgrimage: Millions joined Arbaeen in Karbala amid fears of renewed U.S.-Iran escalation.

Oil & Markets: Oil prices bounced slightly after a sharp drop as Trump paused planned strikes on Iran, but Iran denied talks—keeping Strait of Hormuz supply fears alive; Brent and WTI both rebounded while investors watched shipping risks and OPEC+ output plans. Regional Diplomacy: Gulf states and Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt condemned Israeli actions in Gaza as mediators push for de-escalation, while Iran floated a NATO-style Islamic security alliance with Pakistan and others. Gaza/Israel Politics: Israel’s finance minister urged Netanyahu to approve new Jewish settlements in Gaza, as Israeli officials signaled skepticism about Hamas disarmament and peace roadmaps. Hate & Security: NYPD data said Jews were targeted in 70% of NYC hate crimes in July; in Toronto, five Muslim police officers faced penalties over controversial comments tied to Oct. 7. Local/Business: World Bank cut the Philippines growth outlook citing a Middle East-driven oil shock; Mintoak acquired Dubai-based ICC Loyalty to expand fintech engagement for banks. Sports: Islam Makhachev said he discussed potential boxing under Zuffa Boxing with Turki Al-Sheikh.

Israel-Gaza: The IDF says it killed Mahmoud Fatair, an Islamic Jihad Nukhba commander tied to hostage captivity, as fighting and hostage-linked operations continue. Gaza diplomacy: A “Board of Peace” official pushed back on Israeli cabinet criticism of a proposed International Stabilization Force, saying the plan is about implementation and Hamas disarmament. Iran-US oil shock: Trump said planned strikes on Iran were paused for talks, while Iran denied direct talks; markets reacted with a sharp oil drop and renewed hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Energy routes: Kuwait is weighing a new crude pipeline with Arab neighbors to bypass Hormuz, as shipping risk remains elevated. OPEC+ supply: OPEC+ agreed another September output increase, completing the rollback of 2023 voluntary cuts. Saudi shipping: Saudi Yanbu saw its busiest day since Houthi threats, with multiple supertankers loading despite risks. West Bank violence: Data shows mosque attacks in the occupied West Bank surged over the past decade, with a sharp rise after Oct 2023. Regional politics: Iraq’s Kurdish leader Nechirvan Barzani met Syria’s al-Sharaa in Damascus to discuss SDF integration and Kurdish rights. Turkey economy: Turkey’s July inflation edged down to 31.75% y/y, though data reliability remains questioned.

US-Iran Brinkmanship: Trump canceled a planned strike on Iran and said talks start Monday afternoon, aiming to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address Iran’s nuclear threat, after Saudi-led mediation and pressure from Gulf states; Iran also claims talks with Oman on a new Hormuz route are nearing final stages. Oil Markets: The pause sparked a sharp crude selloff (Brent and WTI down about 5–7% in early trade) and helped lift gold, while investors watched for whether shipping risk premiums truly ease. OPEC+ Supply Call: OPEC+ approved a September quota increase of 188,000 bpd, described as the final step in unwinding 2023 voluntary cuts, though disruptions may still limit real supply. Gaza Diplomacy Friction: Israel told the White House it has “serious security concerns” about a Hamas disarmament deal, saying Hamas may rebuild its military and that Israel won’t withdraw before disarmament is real. Regional War Economy: A report says Scottish households are paying about £25m extra per week as Middle East conflict drives higher fuel and energy costs.

Gaza/Israel: The IDF said it killed three terrorists in Gaza linked to Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Army of Islam, including a Hamas battalion commander in Jabalya, as fighting continues amid renewed ceasefire talk. Israel-Hamas talks: Israel told the White House it has “serious security concerns” about a proposed Hamas disarmament deal, saying it won’t redeploy in Gaza until Hamas truly disarms. US-Iran diplomacy: US President Donald Trump said the US and Israel will halt fresh strikes on Iran, citing “perimeters of a deal” that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran denies any deal is in place and says it’s on high alert. Regional pressure: Saudi Crown Prince MBS urged Trump to prioritize dialogue to reduce escalation, as Gulf states weigh how to respond to the latest swings in US policy. Lebanon: Reports from southern Lebanon claimed Israeli tank movement, phosphorus shelling and drone flights over Beirut and nearby areas. Oil markets: OPEC+ agreed to raise September output by 188,000 bpd, but analysts warn the move may not quickly boost supplies while Hormuz remains constrained. Energy security/transport: Iraq rejected claims of US aircraft landing at Ain al-Asad, amid heightened regional tensions. Ceuta information war: A study said social media narratives about the Ceuta migrant surge were recast as a Jewish plot, spreading to tens of millions. Israel-Uganda: Uganda unveiled a statue honoring Yonatan Netanyahu, killed in the 1976 Entebbe rescue mission.

US-Iran Tensions, Deal Talks: Trump says he cancelled planned strikes on Iran after Tehran and “other Middle Eastern countries” asked for time to finalize a peace framework, with Israel joining the commitment; the deal outline hinges on the “immediate, complete, and total” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat, while Trump warns the US remains “locked and loaded” if talks stall. Regional Diplomacy Pressure: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned of a decisive response to any “adventurous action,” speaking by phone with Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia as Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian drones. Energy Shockwatch: With Hormuz a flashpoint, OPEC+ is expected to raise September quotas as the war disrupts shipments, while oil and gas prices stay sensitive to any escalation. Iraq-Türkiye Energy Deal: Ankara and Baghdad extended a Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline agreement for one year, aiming to move at least 750,000 bpd via Ceyhan. UNESCO Heritage in Danger: UNESCO added new Middle Eastern heritage sites in Lebanon, Palestine and Iran, flagging how war and disputed stewardship can limit protection even when sites gain global recognition. Saudi De-escalation Signals: Reports say Saudi Crown Prince MBS raised concerns with Trump and urged restraint during calls amid the strike threat.

Arbaeen in Iraq: Around 600 media workers are covering the Aug. 4 Arbaeen pilgrimage in Karbala, with thousands of foreign pilgrims already entering Iraq for the 40-day mourning period. Iraq–Türkiye Energy: Iraq and Türkiye signed a one-year deal to keep the Kirkuk–Ceyhan crude pipeline running, with a minimum 750,000 barrels per day while talks continue on a longer-term framework. Gaza Diplomacy & Stalemate: Hamas and Islamic Jihad say they will not hand over weapons unless Israel ends attacks and fully withdraws, even as Trump hails a Gaza roadmap and Israel faces hurdles over withdrawal and disarmament. Iran War Escalation Fears: Reports say the U.S. and Israel are planning harsh strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure as Trump warns he’ll hit Iran “very hard,” while Iran threatens retaliation and the Strait of Hormuz risk keeps markets tense. Regional Security Alerts: U.S. embassies urge Americans across multiple Middle East countries to consider leaving or be ready for flight cancellations and airspace closures. Protests in Europe: Hundreds protested in Stockholm against Israeli attacks on Gaza and the West Bank, calling for an immediate ceasefire. Oil Prices: Brent and WTI rose on renewed Middle East shipping and strike fears, with July’s gains driven by Hormuz disruption worries.

Iran-US-Israel Escalation: The US and Israel are weighing large strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, with reports saying targets could include refineries and power plants, while Trump warns he’ll hit Iran “very hard” and Tehran vows retaliation against US and Israeli assets. Gaza Deal Friction: Hamas says it will disarm under a Trump-brokered roadmap, but Israel signals it won’t withdraw from Gaza until “genuine disarmament,” keeping the ceasefire timeline shaky. Red Sea Pressure: Yemen’s Houthis claim they forced eight Saudi oil tankers to reroute toward the Cape of Good Hope, as Saudi Arabia and partners push a maritime defense coalition to protect Red Sea shipping. Hormuz Shipping Crunch: Oil markets stay jumpy as Strait of Hormuz traffic remains muted and countries accelerate alternative export routes. Energy Profits Boom: Big Oil cashes in—Exxon and Chevron report record-quarter gains as war-driven supply disruptions lift refining margins. Regional Diplomacy: India’s Jaishankar calls on Iran to avoid attacks on commercial shipping and seafarers amid rising maritime incidents. Local Politics Spillover: Michigan’s Democratic primary debate over Israel continues to ripple into other races, including concerns over antisemitism and harassment at party events.

Gaza Ceasefire Roadmap: Trump says a breakthrough deal is set for Hamas “complete disarmament” and Israel’s phased withdrawal, but the big sticking point remains sequencing—Hamas links disarmament to Israeli troop pullback, while Israel demands “genuine disarmament” first; Hamas also says it will hand over weapons to a new Gaza administration body, with Israel yet to fully endorse the roadmap. US-Iran Tensions & Shipping: Markets react to renewed risk around the Strait of Hormuz after Iran says it stopped tankers, while Saudi and partners push maritime security plans for Red Sea routes as Houthis vow escalation. Energy Shock & Profits: Oil prices swing on the conflict, and major US firms report record gains—ExxonMobil profits jump 105% and Chevron posts a sharp surge—while Saudi growth data shows a deep Q2 contraction tied to oil output disruptions. Regional Politics: Turkey’s NATO role and defense ambitions stay in focus, while former Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu quits politics and dissolves his party. US Domestic Pressure: Senate Democrats press the Pentagon over medical care for troops wounded in a Kuwait drone strike. Israel Legal/ICC Fallout: Netanyahu says Israel’s “special forces” are ready if he’s detained abroad over an ICC warrant. Public Opinion: A poll finds 1 in 3 Democrats identify as democratic socialists, adding to the political churn around Israel and the left.