AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Oil Deal: The US temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days (until Aug. 21), allowing sales including to US buyers, after “productive” talks in Switzerland and claims that IAEA inspectors could return; markets reacted with oil sliding more than 3% as Hormuz traffic picks up. Lebanon Ceasefire Under Strain: Israel fired on civilians in southern Lebanon, killing two, as Washington announced a new ceasefire monitoring mechanism and prepared another Israel-Lebanon round in Washington. Nuclear Inspections Clash: Trump said Iran agreed to “highest level” nuclear inspections “long into the future,” while Iran pushed back, saying inspectors won’t be able to access sites hit by US-Israeli strikes. Turkey Crackdown: Turkey seized six firms and appointed trustees to 10 in a fuel/LPG tax probe, while arresting 200+ suspects linked to ISIS and other groups ahead of the NATO summit. UN Rights Report: A UN inquiry says Israeli forces deliberately targeted Palestinian children, raising genocide and war-crimes allegations. Pakistan-Iran Outreach: Iranian President Pezeshkian arrived in Islamabad after US-Iran diplomacy, as Pakistan weighs how it could benefit from eased Iranian energy access. Energy Watch: Strait of Hormuz traffic is rising, but analysts warn the oil market may swing toward oversupply if diplomacy holds.

US-Iran Oil Sanctions Waiver: The US Treasury has issued a 60-day license easing Iran oil sanctions through Aug. 21, letting Tehran produce, deliver and sell crude and petroleum products after talks in Switzerland—an expected revenue boost as Strait of Hormuz fears ease and tanker traffic ticks up. Lebanon Border Tensions: Israel’s military posture in southern Lebanon is under scrutiny: a New York Times report says new IDF directives narrow troops to defensive action and restrict warning shots and demolitions, while Netanyahu insists soldiers still have “full freedom of action” to counter threats. US-Iran Talks Roadmap: Mediators Pakistan and Qatar say the Switzerland talks produced a 60-day path to a wider accord, including mechanisms for Lebanon de-escalation and safe passage for commercial ships. Regional Energy Shock: The IEA warns the Middle East conflict has reshaped oil markets, with demand damage and supply disruptions still reverberating even as prices fall on diplomacy. Montreal Attack Fallout: A shooting in Montreal’s Jewish Côte-des-Neiges area killed a police officer and a civilian identified as Michael Moshe Mizrahi, raising fresh security and antisemitism concerns. Counter-ISIS Finance Crackdown: OFAC sanctioned individuals and firms across Europe, the Middle East and West Africa for facilitating Islamic State financial networks.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Iran’s delegation walked out of Switzerland talks after Trump threatened strikes over Hezbollah, even as mediators said a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal is still the goal, with a “de-confliction cell” planned for Lebanon and disputes over Strait of Hormuz control and ceasefire terms still hanging over the process. Lebanon Front: Iran says Lebanon ceasefire steps hinge on “commitment for commitment,” while Israel keeps a southern buffer zone and warns it will act if threatened, leaving the truce fragile. Energy Shock Watch: Oil markets swung on the talks—Brent slipped toward $80 as traders priced easing disruption—while Saudi crude exports hit a record low in April and the IEA warned of a potential supply overhang by 2027. Tech & Security: Swiss regulators are scrutinizing whether Google cloud services used by Israel could have military uses. Regional Politics: European Parliament debate pressure grows over alleged Israeli influence in UK politics, as Türkiye’s EU report is dismissed by Ankara as political leverage. Humanitarian/Local: A 5.4 quake hit Pakistan’s KP and Islamabad; Türkiye updated its active fault map after 13 years.

US-Iran Talks in Switzerland: Negotiators met at Burgenstock under the Islamabad MoU, but talks turned rocky after Donald Trump threatened renewed strikes over Hezbollah, prompting Iran’s delegation to walk out; Iran says the agenda hinges on ending Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Lebanon Front: Israel’s Katz says it will not withdraw from its southern “security zone,” while Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem rejects any ceasefire that leaves Israel free to operate inside Lebanon. Strait of Hormuz & Oil Markets: Iran claims it has closed Hormuz again, while US-linked reporting says oil still flows; the dispute is pushing Brent higher and rattling markets. Regional Backing: Türkiye, Egypt, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia welcomed the US-Iran MoU and urged a swift, verifiable settlement, with Palestinian issues central. Israel Public Mood: A poll says 92.1% of Israelis believe Iran won the war and that the US-Iran deal was finalized without Israel. Iraq Energy Push: Iraq’s oil ministry orders companies to restore southern output toward 4.2–4.3M bpd and boost exports. Humanitarian/Religion: Archbishop of Canterbury begins a West Bank visit focused on “peace and freedom” for Palestinian Christians.

US-Iran Diplomacy: US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials arrived in Switzerland for technical talks under the Islamabad MoU, with Lebanon ceasefire and Iran’s nuclear program set as top priorities, even as fighting in southern Lebanon threatens the process. Lebanon Front: Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said operations in Lebanon won’t be constrained by any limits, as fresh strikes reportedly killed civilians in the Bekaa Valley and near Tyre and Israel vowed to stay in a “security zone” despite the ceasefire. Strait of Hormuz & Energy: Iran again claimed it closed the Strait of Hormuz amid the Lebanon conflict, while markets watched oil flows and bullion for the next moves; India meanwhile boosted Russian and UAE crude imports ahead of full Gulf recovery. Public Opinion in Israel: A new poll found 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the war and most say the US-Iran deal weakens Israel’s long-term security. Iraq Trade Routes: Iraq is expanding exports via Syria’s Baniyas port to replace disrupted Gulf routes, targeting crude and naphtha shipments as early as July. Culture & Faith: Actor Giancarlo Esposito reportedly embraced Islam in Saudi Arabia while filming, reciting the Shahada at a mosque.

Lebanon-Israel Escalation: Israeli strikes killed at least 20 in Lebanon as a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect, with both sides trading blame for violations and Israel saying it would “hold fire” but keep the ability to respond. Hormuz Oil Shock: Iran’s IRGC again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to vessel traffic, citing “ceasefire violations” tied to Lebanon, while the US CENTCOM said traffic continued and tens of millions of barrels moved through the route—fueling fresh uncertainty for oil markets. US-Iran Talks in Switzerland: Iran’s delegation, led by parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and including FM Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Switzerland to push implementation of a Pakistan-mediated MoU, as US Vice President JD Vance headed to join talks amid delays and competing narratives. Regional Security Spillover: Islamic State claimed responsibility for killing two Syrian soldiers near Manbij, highlighting ongoing attacks in Syria despite territorial losses. Energy Moves Beyond the Strait: Iraq began drilling its first northern exploration well since 1978, while Lebanon’s exports to Saudi Arabia resumed after a five-year ban was lifted.

Israel-Hezbollah Escalation: Israeli strikes in Lebanon’s Nabatieh and nearby areas killed at least 16 people even after a ceasefire was announced, with Hezbollah accusing Israel of an infiltration attempt and warning it will respond to any move to seize territory. US-Iran Talks Under Strain: US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Abbas Araghchi are heading to Switzerland to turn the interim US-Iran framework into a longer deal, but Lebanon fighting is threatening the timetable and the ceasefire conditions needed for talks. Oil and Hormuz Shock: Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic has swung sharply—down about 90% during the worst disruption, then improving as the US-Iran agreement eased fears—while markets watch how long recovery takes and whether shipping stays secure. Local Fallout on Fuel Prices: In the Philippines, Sen. Pia Cayetano urged the energy department to quickly pass any global oil price drop from the US-Iran deal to local pump prices. Energy Deals Beyond the War: Malaysia and Turkmenistan reaffirmed long-term energy cooperation, with Petronas marking 30 years in Turkmenistan through new upstream agreements. Religious and Rights Tensions: A report says harassment toward Christians in Israel is rising, while a UN children-and-armed-conflict update flags Israel as the top source of grave child rights violations in conflict zones in 2025.

Israel-Lebanon War: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon again after a ceasefire announcement, killing dozens and displacing families toward Sidon and Beirut, while Israel’s far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir renewed threats that “all of Lebanon must burn,” as Hezbollah and Israel trade accusations of violations. US-Iran Diplomacy: The US-Iran interim framework is under strain: JD Vance postponed Switzerland talks unless fighting stops, and Iran-linked officials warned the deal depends on Israel withdrawing from Lebanon, even as Israel says it will keep troops in a security zone. Strait of Hormuz & Oil Markets: With Hormuz reopening in theory, shipping remains cautious due to security and possible tolls/insurance rules; oil prices slid on hopes of supply recovery but analysts warn normalization will take months. EU & Regional Response: The EU said there can be no stability while Lebanon is bombarded, and leaders reiterated freedom of navigation and opposition to nuclear weapons for Iran. Local Politics & Rights: Norway moved to ban trade with Israeli settlements and annexed East Jerusalem areas; in the US, Jewish groups warned Somerville, Massachusetts, that an “Israel boycott” ordinance could trigger costly legal fights. Afghanistan Economy: The Islamic Emirate signed major gold and cement contracts, aiming to boost jobs and investment.

US-Iran Diplomacy & Oil Markets: The US and Iran’s interim MoU is back in focus after the Strait of Hormuz reopened and shipping began to normalize, easing crude prices and prompting talk of a 60-day path toward a longer deal—though markets stayed jumpy as a Switzerland technical round was postponed amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah fighting. Lebanon Front: Hezbollah vowed to defend Lebanon and accused Israel of violating the ceasefire, while Israel reported soldiers killed and carried out strikes that Lebanon said killed civilians; the clashes also fed into the delay of US-Iran talks. Regional Security: Reuters reports Iran’s IRGC has set up covert Iraq-based cells to launch drone attacks on Gulf states hosting US troops, signaling a shift toward smaller, tightly controlled networks. Energy Policy in the Region: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz announced a major petrol price cut tied to the Islamabad MoU, while India is reportedly seeking to expand strategic oil reserves after the supply shock. Iraq Pilgrimage: Millions are expected for Ashura as Karbala and Najaf prepare large volunteer-run service networks. EU-Israel Rift: Israel severed ties with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas over alleged apartheid remarks, escalating diplomatic tensions. Humanitarian Watch: A UN report says Israel recorded the highest number of grave violations against children in 2025, with government forces leading perpetrators.

US-Iran MoU and Strait of Hormuz: Oil is starting to move again after the interim deal, with tankers and LNG shipments streaming through Hormuz and prices sliding toward multi-month lows as markets price a supply rebound. Lebanon ceasefire pressure: The same agreement is raising fresh friction: Israel says it will keep a southern Lebanon buffer, while Iran and Hezbollah accuse Israel of repeated ceasefire violations and the US warns Israel to stop strikes that hit civilians. Diplomacy vs escalation: A former Israeli navy commander says Israel should expect repeated rounds of fighting with Iran even after deals, arguing diplomacy won’t bring stability. Israel-EU rupture: Israel severed contact with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas over alleged “apartheid” remarks, escalating a broader EU-Israel dispute. US politics and Israel ties: JD Vance sharply rebuked Israeli critics, saying Trump is Israel’s only powerful ally and urging restraint. Local US legal fight: A federal judge ordered release of Milwaukee Islamic leader Salah Sarsour from detention after finding a First Amendment retaliation case. Energy politics abroad: Kuwait lifted force majeure and plans to ramp output as shipping normalizes. Union politics: The UAW voted to amend its constitution to bar investment in Israel Bonds, setting up divestment.

US-Iran Deal: Trump and Iran’s president signed an Islamabad MoU to end the Middle East war, with Iran agreeing to dilute enriched uranium, the US waiving oil sanctions, and both sides pledging an immediate halt to military operations while reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil Markets: Brent and WTI slid about 2% as Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief boosted supply expectations, though traders also weighed Fed rate worries and warnings of possible oversupply later. Pakistan Mediation: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif signed as guarantor and said the MoU takes effect immediately, with Iran reopening Hormuz and the US lifting its naval blockade. Israel Pushback: Israeli officials said Israel is “the loser,” warning the deal could force Lebanon withdrawals; Israel also severed contact with EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas after apartheid remarks. Gaza Update: Gaza’s Health Ministry said Israeli violations of the cease-fire have killed at least 1,005 Palestinians since it began, with continued strikes reported. Regional Energy Shift: Iraq and Turkey pipeline talks resurfaced as countries look for routes that avoid Hormuz disruption and reduce reliance on a single corridor.

US-Iran War Deal: Trump and Iran’s presidents signed an MoU to end the Middle East war, with an immediate halt to fighting “including in Lebanon,” and a 60-day period for nuclear talks; Iran agrees to dilute enriched uranium under IAEA supervision while the US moves to waive oil sanctions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial passage within 30 days. Israel’s Pushback: Israeli officials say they were sidelined and fear Iran is “buying time” before a final deal, while Israel keeps pressing in Lebanon and tightens control around Hebron’s Ibrahimi Mosque. Oil Markets: Crude slid as traders priced in Hormuz reopening and lower geopolitical risk, but analysts warn full recovery could take weeks or longer amid demand softness and lingering shipping uncertainty. Gaza Toll: Gaza Health Ministry says Israeli operations killed 1,005 Palestinians since the ceasefire, as strikes continue across towns and refugee camps. Settlements Scrutiny: US lawmakers urge State Department disclosure of settlement spending, and UN chief Guterres warns Israeli settler groups could face a blacklist over violations against children. Politics & Society: A DC mayoral primary is heating up over a candidate’s Israel criticism and Jewish community concerns, while far-right anti-Jewish rhetoric in a Cornell internship case sparked a major backlash.

US-Iran Lebanon standoff: Iran’s foreign minister says any US-Iran war-ending deal requires Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon, a condition Israel has rejected—raising doubts about whether the interim MoU can hold. Israel politics: Netanyahu faces fresh voter pressure as the Iran deal complicates Israel’s security goals and his election prospects. Oil & markets: Oil steadied near three-month lows as investors weigh Hormuz reopening; leaked interim terms point to Iran being able to sell oil freely and the US lifting its blockade, while the IEA warns of a 2027 supply surplus. Energy ripple effects: Bangladesh started importing diesel from India via a cross-border pipeline to stabilize fuel supplies amid Middle East-driven volatility. UK settlement controversy: A London real estate event admitted settlement property was promoted “by mistake,” prompting calls for investigation. OECD stocks: The IEA says OECD oil inventories hit the lowest since 1990 as governments draw down reserves to offset Gulf disruption.

US-Iran Deal & Oil Markets: Optimism ahead of a Friday US-Iran signing in Switzerland is pushing crude lower, with Brent slipping below $80 to a three-month low as traders price a Strait of Hormuz reopening and expect Iran to resume oil sales soon. G7 Diplomacy: At the G7 in France, leaders are also pressing Russia harder on energy income while Middle East talks stay front and center, with Arab leaders meeting to discuss the Iran-US framework. Lebanon Flashpoint: Despite the MoU, Israel’s strikes in southern Lebanon continued, killing four in Mayfadoun, while Iran warned of “harsh response” and Israel’s far-right ministers signaled operations will continue. West Bank Control: Israel seized planning and construction powers around the Ibrahimi Mosque/Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron, stripping Palestinians of authority and drawing Palestinian Authority condemnation. Politics in Israel: Israeli activists launched a new Jewish-Arab party in Nazareth, pitching equality and peace as elections near. Regional Navigation: Saudi Arabia reiterated the need for full freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Middle East Ceasefire & Lebanon: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says any Israeli strikes or continued occupation in southern Lebanon would violate the US-Iran memorandum, while Israel insists it won’t withdraw and Hezbollah reports clashes with Israeli forces near Kfar Tebnit despite the deal. US-Iran Deal & Nuclear Talks: Trump says the Iran agreement is moving to a “second stage” and warns Iran “will never have a nuclear weapon,” as a Friday signing in Switzerland is expected to kick off broader negotiations—leaving Israel sidelined and warning it could still act against threats. Shipping & Oil Markets: Markets are cheering hopes of Strait of Hormuz reopening, but shipowners want clarity on mines, safety and procedures; oil slid to a three-month low while gold stayed near records. Aviation Disruption: UBS warns Middle East conflict is still cutting European airline seat capacity, with disruption easing only gradually into August. Regional Energy Deals: Egypt seeks more UAE investment with ENOC and Dragon Oil, while MOL signs a Libya offshore exploration production-sharing deal. Israel-Iran Surveillance: Israeli satellites reportedly photographed Iran over 50,000 times during “Operation Roaring Lion,” underscoring the scale of the campaign. Culture & Diplomacy: Qatar’s Museum of Islamic Art screened “Inside Gaza,” featuring AFP journalists trapped in the besieged territory.

US-Iran MoU and Hormuz reopening: Pakistan says the Iran-US memorandum to end military operations is finalized, with a formal Geneva signing set for June 19; Trump calls it “all signed” and promises the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” from Friday, easing oil fears as markets rally and crude slides. Israel-Lebanon standoff: Israel’s leaders insist they are not bound by the deal’s Lebanon clause and will keep troops in southern Lebanon (and also Gaza/Syria) “indefinitely,” even as fighting eases in some areas; Netanyahu frames the campaign as preventing “nuclear annihilation.” Oil and politics collide: US senators demand answers from Big Oil over “egregiously high” pump prices during the Iran war, while analysts warn oil may take months to return to normal flows even if Hormuz reopens. Gaza violence continues: Israeli strikes killed at least six in Gaza despite a ceasefire, including an attack on Jabalia. Security in Syria: Syrian forces thwart an ISIS attack on an internal security HQ in Raqqa, killing one guard. Religious and social currents: Saudi Arabia’s Supreme Court confirms Muharram 1448 begins Tuesday; in the Holy Land, Christians warn violence and intimidation are accelerating displacement, including in Taybeh.