AGP Executive Report

Gaza Update: An Israeli airstrike destroyed the Al-Muttaqin Mosque and tents sheltering displaced families in central Gaza City, leaving hundreds homeless as attacks continue despite a ceasefire. US-Saudi-Iraq Escalation: CENTCOM says US and Saudi forces carried out joint precision strikes in eastern Iraq against “Iran-aligned” groups after more than 30 IRGC-directed drone attacks on US personnel and Saudi energy infrastructure; Iran says it launched missiles at US bases in the region and claims control/attacks affecting tankers near Hormuz. Hormuz & Shipping Risk: Iran-linked actions and Houthis’ Red Sea attacks are again raising oil and shipping fears, with Brent rebounding sharply after the flare-up. Energy Deals: Türkiye’s TPAO agreed to buy a 15% stake in BP’s Kirkuk unit, while Ankara says it is also pursuing up to 1 million bpd oil supply from Iraq. Regional Diplomacy: Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan held calls stressing de-escalation and freedom of navigation in Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. Antisemitism Watch: A new J7 report says 2025 was the deadliest year for Diaspora Jews in decades, with the UK seeing the biggest rise in incidents.

US-Iran-Israel diplomacy: Trump hosted Netanyahu and Zelensky in Washington as Iran talks and “Pickaxe Mountain” dominated the agenda, while Israel’s Katz said the US is blocking strikes on Iran’s energy sites. Oil & shipping: Brent slid more than 5% below $84 as Hormuz risk eased on hopes of de-escalation, but analysts warned Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea disruptions still threaten supply. Saudi drone attacks: Arab states and regional bodies condemned attempted drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities; Iraq ordered an investigation into Riyadh’s claim drones were launched from Iraqi territory. Iraq-Türkiye trade: Baghdad and Ankara pushed customs integration at Ibrahim Khalil to help lift bilateral trade toward $30B. Iraq fuel crisis: Kurdish drivers in Erbil faced gas lines after Dana Gas cut output at Khor Mor amid security threats. Gaza & West Bank: Israel released 60 Palestinian detainees from harsh prison conditions; Katz ordered expanded West Bank offensive and seizure of a refugee camp. Business fallout: Saipem cut its 2026 outlook as Middle East disruptions raise costs, while Baker Hughes flagged lower 2026 spending by oil producers.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil slid again after Trump paused US strikes on Iran to keep talks alive, easing supply fears even as Hormuz remains a risk; Brent dipped toward the high-$80s and markets warned the truce could be fragile. Drone Attacks on Saudi Oil: Arab and Gulf states, plus the OIC, condemned Iran-backed drone attacks launched from Iraq targeting Saudi oil facilities and Riyadh, with Saudi saying it intercepted and destroyed drones and warning it will respond. Regional Diplomacy: Israel and Lebanon are set for US-led direct talks in Rome starting Aug. 4 to expand pilot zones and settle border issues, while Netanyahu heads to Washington for talks with Trump focused on Iran and Gaza. Politics in the US (Israel aid): Michigan’s Senate primary debate between Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed turned on outside spending and US aid to Israel. Fuel Security Fallout: India’s refiners are seeking crude that avoids Red Sea/Hormuz disruption, and Australia is studying its first new oil refinery in 60+ years as Middle East conflict strains global supplies. Local Impact: In the Philippines, fuel retailers signaled price hikes tied to the Middle East-driven oil shock.

US-Iran Pause and Oil Markets: Oil slid sharply after the US and Iran held fire over the weekend, easing Strait of Hormuz shipping fears, though analysts warn the truce may not last. Saudi Drone Attacks: Saudi Arabia says it intercepted and destroyed drones launched from Iraqi territory targeting oil facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh, blaming Iran-aligned militias; Jordan and Qatar echoed condemnation and demanded Iraq stop using its territory. Houthi Pressure on Exports: Yemen’s Houthis claimed drone attacks on Saudi oil supply and transport links to Yanbu, while Red Sea traffic fell as Bab el-Mandeb risk rose. Diplomacy Effort: Mediators backed by Qatar and Pakistan report progress toward renewed talks to prevent wider escalation, even as scattered attacks continue. Local Impact in the Philippines: President Marcos Jr. used his SONA to defend measures cushioning Middle East-driven fuel shocks, citing oil procurement from multiple countries and gradual price rollbacks. Saudi Economy and Investment: Brookfield raised about $2bn for a Middle East private equity fund targeting Saudi Arabia and the region, as energy security concerns reshape dealmaking. Israel Politics and ICC Row: Netanyahu renewed attacks on New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani over “hate” and ICC war-crimes charges, keeping Gaza and Iran tensions in the spotlight.

US-Iran Pause, Oil Slide: Oil prices dropped more than 5% after the US and Iran paused strikes, easing immediate supply fears even as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remains disrupted. Markets & Rates: Tokyo stocks rose but gains were trimmed by worries about AI spending; the Bank of Japan is set to keep rates steady while watching Middle East-driven inflation pressure. Fuel Costs in Focus: South Korea’s Lee ordered fuel price caps and tax cuts to stay until volatility eases; Sri Lanka’s CPC sought an urgent meeting over surging diesel and petrol. Red Sea Pressure: Houthis attacked Saudi oil infrastructure, pushing Bab el-Mandeb traffic to the lowest levels in months and raising tanker-risk costs. Lebanon/Hezbollah: Iran’s Khamenei praised Hezbollah’s “unyielding” stance and tied any US-Iran deal to an end to Israeli operations in Lebanon. West Bank Violence: Settlers set fire to mosques in the occupied West Bank after clashes, as Israel prepares a major security operation ahead of its October election. Israel Election Watch: Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot emerged as Netanyahu’s main challenger in early polling. Security & Hate Crimes: Toronto police investigated damage to Jewish-owned bakeries, while Australia’s Jewish leaders told an antisemitism inquiry that government actions have “egged on” hostility. Gold Rebounds: Gold rose as oil fell and inflation worries eased, with investors awaiting the Fed.

Berlin Pride Attack: German authorities say a van ramming and machete attack near Berlin’s Pride festival was Islamist terrorism; police named 21-year-old Abdul Ballout and a manhunt continues after prosecutors said he tried to reach Islamic State via Turkey and Lebanon. US-Iran War & Energy Shock: Reuters reports the conflict has widened beyond the Middle East to the Red Sea and Caspian Sea even as the US pauses airstrikes; Iran says it halted retaliatory attacks after the pause, while an oil tanker exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a mine. Oil Markets: Brent surged above $100 as shipping risks grow, with central banks bracing for energy-driven inflation. Red Sea Escalation: Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco sites in Jizan and Yanbu; Singapore condemned the strikes and urged restraint. Syria-Israel Talks: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa says Damascus is working on a security agreement with Israel involving multiple countries, while also stressing Syria’s Golan claim. West Bank Violence: Palestinian officials report settlers torched mosques and sprayed hate graffiti; Israel says it detained dozens amid a wider crackdown. Diplomacy & Pipelines: Iraq moves to sign pipeline deals with Syria to reroute exports via the Mediterranean, while Iraq’s PM is set to visit Turkey.

Gulf Security Realignment: Bahrain and Kuwait reportedly sent fighter jets to hit Iranian drone and missile sites, with the UAE providing intelligence and air cover—signaling a new willingness by Gulf states to confront Tehran directly. Yemen-Red Sea Escalation: Houthis fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, while Saudi said it intercepted attacks; the exchange is reviving fears of a wider regional war and more shipping disruption. US-Iran Pause: The US paused further airstrikes on Iran after nearly two weeks, as Trump weighs diplomacy but keeps escalation options; officials cite concerns over energy shocks and regional blowback. Energy Routes & Prices: Oil remains volatile around the $100 mark as Red Sea and Hormuz risks ripple into inflation expectations and central-bank watchlists. Iraq-Syria Pipeline Push: Iraq approved deals with Syria to build oil pipelines to Mediterranean export markets, including work tied to the Akkas field and tenders to expand capacity. Human Movement: Iran-related tensions are driving a surge of people into Pakistan via Taftan border, with UNHCR figures cited for tens of thousands of crossings. UN Syria Return: UN chief António Guterres arrived in Damascus for the first visit in over 15 years, urging support for Syria’s sovereignty and reconstruction.

Red Sea Escalation: Iran-backed Houthis fired missiles and drones at Saudi oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, saying it was retaliation for Saudi strikes on Hodeida; Saudi alerts were issued and later lifted, while Greek-operated Patriot systems intercepted at least two missiles aimed at Yanbu. US-Iran Tensions: The renewed Saudi-Houthi exchange comes as the US and Iran trade strikes and the Strait of Hormuz remains a key worry for energy flows. Oil Prices: Brent hovered around $100–$102 as markets priced in supply risk, with analysts warning costs could keep feeding into inflation. Gaza Strike: Israel killed a senior Hamas-led police official in northern Gaza, with medics reporting additional deaths from airstrikes across the enclave. West Bank Pressure: Israel said it is preparing an “extensive” West Bank operation after a deadly shooting near Tal, as Israeli opposition warns the government is turning the area into a “powder keg.” Syria Tragedy: A bus crash on the Damascus–Deir Ezzor road killed at least 35 people, highlighting deteriorating infrastructure. UN Diplomacy: UN chief António Guterres began his first Syria visit since 2009, urging respect for sovereignty and support for recovery. UN Rights Chief: Volker Türk won a second term as UN human rights chief despite opposition from the US, Israel and Russia.

UN Human Rights: Volker Türk was reappointed for a second term by the UN General Assembly, 144-10, despite opposition from the US, Russia and Israel. Al-Aqsa Tensions: Malaysia condemned a mass incursion by 4,200+ Israeli settlers into the Al-Aqsa compound, calling it a breach of international law and urging urgent UN action. NYC Antisemitism: After two Upper West Side stabbings, Jewish leaders and officials blamed antisemitism and Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s Israel rhetoric; the suspect, Raul Morales, faces hate-crime-related charges as motive is investigated. Israel-Palestine Politics in Labor: Australia’s Labor conference ended with debate on Israel quashed, with MP Ed Husic saying stronger criticism and “genocide” language were blocked. Middle East Oil Shock: Iran said oil revenues rose $2.5B over four months; meanwhile Brent and WTI slipped after Brent briefly topped $100 amid Red Sea and Hormuz-route fears. Red Sea Escalation: Houthis claimed missile strikes on southern Saudi Arabia after Saudi strikes on Houthi-held Hodeidah; both sides traded warnings as shipping risk remains high. US-Iran Talks Denied: The US and Iran denied a NYT report that Iran rejected a Trump ceasefire proposal relayed via Iraq. Markets Watch: Wall Street finished mixed as oil eased, but investors stayed focused on escalation risk and tariffs.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers, prompting rerouting and pushing Middle East crude premiums to two-month highs (Dubai to swaps doubled to $12.74/bbl; Murban premium to $19.04), while Brent briefly topped $100 before easing as investors weigh renewed US-Iran risk. Markets & Inflation: Oil’s $100-plus surge is lifting bond yields and rate-hike fears, with Wall Street still vulnerable even as stocks bounced on Friday. West Bank Violence: Netanyahu vowed “forceful action” after a deadly shooting killed two Israelis and four Palestinians, with plans for curfews, anti-terror raids, and new/expanded settler outposts. Iran’s Fast Repair: Satellite imagery suggests Iran is rebuilding missile and military sites faster than expected after US/Israeli strikes. Press Freedom in Turkey: The Dicle Fırat Journalists Association marked July 24 as a “Day of Struggle,” citing censorship, blocked coverage, and jailed journalists. Malaysia’s Israel Policy: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Malaysia’s ban on Israeli entry targets Israel’s “oppression and occupation,” not Jews. US-Iraq Levant Focus: A report highlights Trump’s approach of backing strong leaders to counter Iran and open economies to US business.

Red Sea Oil Shock: Brent briefly topped $100 a barrel again as Yemen’s Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers and warned of a naval blockade, raising fears the Bab el-Mandeb route could be choked alongside the Strait of Hormuz. US-Iran Escalation: Trump vowed “major military punishment” for Iran and its Houthi allies after the strikes, as the US carried out another night of attacks and Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered by Iraq’s prime minister. Sanctions Pressure: The US Treasury hit Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas-linked financial networks with new sanctions, targeting officials and sham entities tied to fundraising. Markets & Inflation: Oil’s surge fed into global risk-off moves—stocks slid, yields jumped, and currencies wobbled—while governments warned consumers could feel higher gas, groceries, and back-to-school costs. Regional Politics: China urged Washington and Tehran to stop hostilities and return to diplomacy as tensions threaten fragile channels. Al-Aqsa Tensions: Thousands of Jewish worshippers entered the Al-Aqsa compound during Tisha B’Av under police protection, drawing renewed regional condemnation.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Brent surged back above $100 a barrel after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis claimed they attacked two Saudi oil tankers, raising fears of wider shipping disruption beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Market Fallout: Stocks slid as oil’s jump fanned inflation worries and renewed “AI spending” concerns; Tesla and Alphabet dragged Wall Street lower while global benchmarks swung. US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out a 12th night of strikes on Iran and Trump warned he would “bomb and destroy” one bridge or power plant each time Iran fires at ships in the Strait of Hormuz; the US House also advanced a war-powers push seeking congressional approval to curb further Iran action. Nuclear Deal Politics: The US and Saudi Arabia signed a new civil nuclear cooperation agreement that could enable uranium enrichment, while Trump tied approval to Saudi joining the Abraham Accords and normalising ties with Israel—prompting fresh alarm in Israel and uncertainty in the region. Jerusalem Flashpoints: Israeli far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir led hundreds into Al-Aqsa during Tisha B’Av, while thousands of settlers entered the compound amid tight security. Diplomatic Signals: Malaysia reiterated it will not recognise Israel or allow Israeli entry, even after US congressional pressure. EU Warning: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the Houthi tanker attack “unacceptable and illegal,” urging an end to threats to navigation.

US-Iran Escalation & Oil Shock: Trump’s latest threats to strike Iranian bridges and power plants, alongside a fresh US strike campaign, are keeping markets tense and pushing Brent above $95 as Houthis claim attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, raising fears for Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb shipping. Saudi Nuclear Deal: The US and Saudi Arabia signed a 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation pact that could enable uranium enrichment, with critics warning it may open a proliferation pathway even as safeguards are promised. Red Sea Shipping Disruption: Reports say Saudi oil tankers turned back or rerouted after Houthi warnings and claimed missile/drone strikes, with crews safe but global supply risk rising. Iraq Caught in the Middle: Drones and strikes have hit Basra’s oil infrastructure and foreign energy contractors, underscoring how easily sovereignty is being violated amid US-Iran-Israel tensions. Regional Diplomacy & Trade: Pakistan and Iran discussed reviving the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul freight rail corridor to boost connectivity, while Malaysia’s Anwar rejected US lawmakers’ demands tied to Israel entry restrictions. Culture & Society: Al-Azhar launched a new institute for Arabic calligraphy and ornamentation in Cairo, while separate reports highlight growing insecurity and isolation for Jewish communities amid Middle East-linked backlash.

US-Saudi Nuclear Deal: The Trump administration is set to announce a 30-year civilian nuclear pact with Saudi Arabia, potentially including US-built uranium enrichment, with critics warning it could enable weapons ambitions. Red Sea Oil Shock: Houthis have threatened a Red Sea “embargo” and warned ships away from Saudi ports, with tankers rerouting toward the Suez and Bab el-Mandeb traffic sharply disrupted—pushing Brent above $95 and lifting global fuel and inflation fears. US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out its 11th straight night of strikes on Iran as Trump vowed to destroy “one bridge or power plant” for any Hormuz ship attack; Iran also hit Jordan near Israel’s border with missiles and drones. US-Israel Defense Integration: Congress is poised to advance Section 219 in the NDAA, accelerating US-Israel military tech and supply-chain integration. Malaysia vs US Pressure: Malaysia’s PM Anwar says the country will keep barring Israeli nationals despite criticism from US lawmakers, framing it as sovereignty and support for Palestinians. Turkey Press Freedom: Germany says it’s “highly irritated” after Turkey detained Deutsche Welle correspondent Alican Uludag again, releasing him under travel limits. Hamas Leadership: Hamas’ new chief Khalil al-Hayya lists priorities including ending Israel’s Gaza offensive, full withdrawal, prisoner releases, and rebuilding Palestinian institutions.

US-Lebanon-Israel Diplomacy: Trump met Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and backed U.S. efforts to mediate a deal aimed at Israel’s pullback, while also signaling openness to talking to Hezbollah if Aoun wants it. ICC Arrest Row in New York: NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani walked back his pledge to arrest Netanyahu over an ICC warrant, saying the city lacks authority—sparking fresh debate over who can act on international orders. Gaza Strikes: At least 12 Palestinians were killed in Israeli attacks across Gaza, including reports of a family of six among the dead. Red Sea Oil Shock: Houthis threatened a maritime blockade of Saudi-linked shipping, prompting Saudi oil tankers to U-turn toward the Suez Canal; the risk is pushing Brent back above $91 and raising inflation worries. Iran-US Escalation: Iran said it is in “full-scale war” with the U.S. as Washington expanded strikes and Kuwait reported drone attacks. Iraq Drone Threats: Air defenses intercepted three explosive-laden drones near the U.S. consulate in Erbil. Energy Markets: Brent’s jump is feeding into broader market jitters, with Asian refiners rerouting Saudi crude via Suez/Africa to avoid Red Sea disruption.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Yemen’s Houthi threat of a naval blockade is already rerouting tankers, with two Saudi-crude shipments turning back and a VLCC making a U-turn—raising fresh supply-risk fears as Hormuz remains disrupted. Oil Market Pressure: Brent pushed back above $90 amid US-Iran escalation; India’s state refiners canceled Iraqi crude loadings over security concerns, while US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks fell to the lowest since 1983. Gaza and UN Response: The UN human rights office condemned Israeli strikes in Gaza, saying at least 57 people were killed (including children) in days of intensified attacks. Lebanon Border Tensions: Lebanon’s army accused Israeli forces of firing near troops in southern “pilot zone” areas as deployments begin after an Israel-Lebanon framework deal. West Bank Security Warning: A report warns PA military buildup in the West Bank could pose an October 7-style threat to central Israel. Turkey Crackdown Update: Turkey’s main opposition CHP split further after ousted leader Ozgur Ozel resigned to launch a new party amid an ongoing crackdown.